The outlook for interest rates and inflation, overseas bond markets, and the balance of buyers and sellers can all move the 10-year yield.
Eight indicators.
One connected economy.
Understand what these numbers mean for the food and beverage industry. See how they affect customer budgets, order sizes, pricing and buying decisions.
The same numbers as your briefing.
Edition: 2026-10-09 · Updated with each published edition
Inflation (CPI)4.0%CurrentUp from 3.5% · 30 Sep 2026Next release: 28 Oct 2026Cash rate4.60%Effective 30 Sep 2026Up from 4.35% · announced 29 Sep 2026Next decision: 3 Nov 2026, 2:30pmConsumer confidence80.4Oct 2026 · Westpac indexDown from 84.4 · 6 Oct 2026Next release: 13 Oct 2026Business confidence-8Aug 2026 · NAB indexDown from -6 · 8 Sep 2026Next release: 13 Oct 2026Unemployment4.6%CurrentUp from 4.5% · 24 Sep 2026Next release: 15 Oct 2026GDP growth0.4% q/qJune 2026 · 2.1% y/yNext release: 2 Dec 2026Housing & Value11,531,100 dwellingsUp 54,400 in Jun qtr 2026Mean price: A$1,100,400 · down A$8,200Australia 10 Year Government Bond5.404%RBA closing yield · published weeklyUp from 5.394% · +1.0 bpsMarket date: 7 Oct 2026
Select a number to read its explanation. Each figure shows the period it covers or when it was collected. Prices do not update continuously on this page.
Above 5% in this edition. At 5.404%, this important guide to long-term borrowing costs is worth watching alongside the cash rate. Crossing 5% does not automatically trigger an RBA decision or change your loan rate.
Why long-term
interest rates matter.
The cash rate is the RBA’s short-term interest rate target. The 10-year government bond yield is set by investors buying and selling bonds. It reflects their outlook for rates and inflation, plus the extra return they want for lending over a longer period.
It can move before the RBA acts, and can move in a different direction.
RBA CASH RATE4.60%Short-term interest rate target
Set by the RBA
Set by the RBA
10-YEAR BOND YIELD5.404%Guide to long-term borrowing costs
Set by the market
Set by the market
Market date: 7 Oct 2026. These rates cover different borrowing periods. Neither is a quote for your business loan.
Lenders use government bond yields as one guide when pricing longer-term finance. Their own costs, profit margins and the risk of a borrower not repaying also affect the rate offered.
Customers financing equipment or fit-outs may review their plans when loan costs change. Ask about their budget, approval process and timing.
Why America’s numbers matter here.
Money moves between countries, so American news can affect Australian markets. Investors watch US inflation, jobs reports and decisions by the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank. Two key inflation measures are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. These can change expectations for US interest rates and move US government bond yields, known as Treasury yields. Australian bond yields and the Australian dollar can respond even when the RBA leaves its rate unchanged.
US inflation, jobs & central-bank decisions → US bond yields & the US dollar → Australian bond yields, borrowing costs & the Australian dollar → business costs & customer spending
For F&B, a weaker Australian dollar can make goods priced in US dollars more expensive, including some imported ingredients and equipment. Borrowing costs can also affect expansion plans and customer budgets. The impact depends on supplier contracts, timing and whether a business has locked in its exchange rate.
Influence, not control: the RBA makes its own decisions for Australian inflation and employment. Australian economic data, China, prices for oil and other traded goods, and investors’ willingness to take risks also matter. The RBA does not simply follow the Federal Reserve.
Background: RBA: global yields, Australian financial conditions and the exchange rate. The examples show possible effects on customer costs and buying decisions.
Read it correctly: a fixed-rate bond’s price falls when its yield rises. One basis point (bp) is 0.01 percentage points: a rise from 5.00% to 5.10% is 10 basis points. The coupon is the bond’s regular interest payment; the yield also takes its market price into account. Neither tells you what the RBA will do next.
Learn more: RBA: bonds and the yield curve · RBA: government yields as funding benchmarks. The business examples explain possible effects, not predicted outcomes.
What each indicator tells you.
What it means · Why it matters for sales · What to check
Inflation (CPI)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks prices for a typical basket of household goods and services. The annual rate compares prices with a year earlier.
For sales: It helps explain pressure on customer budgets. Use it to prepare for price discussions and questions about value.
Keep in mind: Your own costs may rise at a different pace. Food, wages, energy and rent do not all move together.
View the data source ↗Cash rate
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets a target for the interest rate banks pay to borrow from each other overnight. This influences other interest rates across the economy.
For sales: Higher loan repayments can leave customers with less to spend. Ask whether budgets or buying plans have changed.
Keep in mind: Your business loan rate also includes the lender’s costs and its assessment of lending risk.
View the data source ↗Consumer confidence
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute survey measures how households feel about their finances, the economy and major purchases.
For sales: Customers may favour lower-priced products or smaller orders when confidence falls. Check whether this is happening in your accounts.
Keep in mind: How people feel does not always match what they spend. Compare the survey with customer orders and repeat purchases.
View the data source ↗Business confidence
NAB asks businesses whether they expect conditions to improve or worsen. Its index compares the share expecting improvement with the share expecting things to get worse. It is adjusted for normal seasonal patterns.
For sales: It can help explain why a business customer delays a purchase or expansion. Ask about their plans rather than assuming the survey describes them.
Keep in mind: Confidence measures expectations. NAB’s separate business conditions measure covers current sales, profits and employment.
View the data source ↗Unemployment
The unemployment rate is the share of the labour force who have no job but are actively looking and available to work. The labour force includes people working or seeking work.
For sales: Jobs support consumer spending. Staff shortages can also limit how much a hospitality customer can serve and order.
Keep in mind: The national rate can hide local shortages and people who have a job but want more hours.
View the data source ↗GDP growth
Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the goods and services the economy produces. Growth is adjusted for price changes: q/q compares with the previous quarter; y/y compares with a year earlier.
For sales: It gives context to sales growth or slower orders. Compare national trends with what is happening in your territory.
Keep in mind: The economy can grow while spending per person remains weak. Results also differ across regions and industries.
View the data source ↗Housing & Value
These Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures estimate the number of homes and their total and average value. A dwelling means a home, such as a house or apartment.
For sales: Changes in home values and building activity can affect local spending. They may help explain differences between sales territories.
Keep in mind: The home count is the total that exists, not the number newly approved. Average values can change because the mix of homes changes.
View the data source ↗Australia 10 Year Government Bond
A government bond is a loan from investors to the government. Its yield is the annual return implied by its market price and promised payments. The 10-year yield is a widely watched guide to longer-term borrowing costs.
For sales: Higher borrowing costs may make customers more cautious about equipment, fit-outs or expansion. Check their budget and decision timing.
Keep in mind: It does not directly set your loan rate. A yield curve compares rates across several borrowing periods; this figure shows just the 10-year point.
View the data source ↗Consumer confidence · neutral = 100
Below 100, negative views outweigh positive ones; above 100, the reverse is true. This measures how households feel, not how much their spending has changed.
Business confidence · neutral = 0
Below zero, more businesses expect conditions to worsen than improve. Above zero, more expect improvement. Its numbers cannot be compared directly with the consumer index.
Definitions: Westpac consumer sentiment · RBA: what sentiment surveys measure.
How the pieces fit
Look at the numbers together.
The economic connections · no daily figures
From prices and policy to demand and jobs.
The arrows show how one part of the economy can influence another. These links are not automatic, can work both ways and often take time.
Inflation (CPI)
Rising prices affect what people can afford and the outlook for interest rates.
Global markets & expectations
US inflation, jobs and central-bank decisions can move US bond yields and influence markets here.
↓Help shape interest-rate decisions and bond prices
RBA cash rate
The RBA’s short-term interest rate target.
10-year government bond yield
A guide to longer-term rates, set by investors. It can move before the RBA acts.
↓Influence the cost of borrowing
Borrowing, saving & investment decisionsThe lender’s costs, the risk of non-payment and your loan terms matter too.
↓Work both ways with household wealth and confidence
Consumer confidence
Households’ willingness to spend.
Business confidence
How businesses feel about the months ahead.
↕Spending, hiring and investment interact with
Housing & value
Home values, building activity and the assets available to secure loans.
GDP growth & unemployment
What the economy produces, jobs and household incomes.
Choose a situation below to see how it could work. These are examples, not forecasts.
Timing and causes matter. Higher yields can accompany stronger growth; lower yields can also signal weaker demand. Confidence and actual sales do not always move together.
A clearer way to use the page.
Why do the figures cover different months?
Each measure has its own release timetable. GDP and home values are published quarterly; confidence and jobs figures are monthly. Bond yields change during trading. A new briefing therefore includes figures covering different dates.
How will this stay aligned with the homepage?
This page and the homepage use the same figures from each published briefing. Values, changes, dates and source links update together. The illustration stays the same.
What if a source cannot be refreshed?
If new data cannot be collected, the briefing keeps the last available figure and its original date or collection time. It will not label an old bond quote as freshly collected. If no previous figure is available, the card shows Unavailable.